Auto Dealer’s newest market well being figures reveal pockets of profitability with 1–3-year-old vehicles having fun with an enormous 35% rise resulting from a 16.1% improve in demand far outpacing December’s 14.3% fall in provide.
Vehicles aged between 3–5-year-old got here in second when it comes to efficiency up 19.3% though older 5-10 year-old classes softened 0.4% whereas 10-15 yr outdated autos fell 7.4% as provide exceeded in any other case optimistic demand.
By gasoline kind, all autos confirmed development though electrical autos stood out in December as an enormous 103.2% rise in demand far exceeded a 7.2% rise in provide, propelled by the current fall in costs.
Auto Dealer stated December’s efficiency meant that the used automobile market had entered 2024 on a agency footing, with client demand, pace of sale, and transactions in a sturdy place. Going forwards, it predicts sturdy used automobile demand will proceed all year long and ship a small market uplift with forecast transactions growing to round 7.24 million gross sales.
Even so, Auto Dealer’s Retail Value Index signifies retail values contracted -5.6% on a year-on-year and like-for-like foundation final month to £17,064, suggesting current developments in commerce costs at the moment are flowing by means of into the retail market.
Client demand remained sturdy all through December, growing 11.7% YoY – up from 8.6% in November, the strongest tempo of development since July. Mixed with a slight softening within the charge of provide to simply 1% YoY development, Auto Dealer’s Market Well being metric – which assesses market profitability based mostly on provide and demand dynamics – elevated from 6% in November to 10.6% in December, additionally the very best since July. This translated into gross sales too; Auto Dealer’s proxy knowledge level to circa 4% improve in used automobile transactions final month.
Buoyant client urge for food was additionally mirrored within the site visitors to Auto Dealer’s market, which in December noticed a complete of over 67 million cross platform visits, which is a ten.2% YoY improve. Momentum continued into the New Yr with visits up almost 4% through the first week of January, while the variety of each day distinctive customers rose by almost 1.5% YoY to circa 1.4 million. Moreover, used vehicles proceed to promote rapidly; in December it took a median of simply 36 days for a automobile to promote, which is similar as in 2022.
With promising indicators of stress starting to ease on customers, not least the much-improved GfK Client Confidence Barometer in December in addition to the 14% YoY improve in visits to its market in 2023, Auto Dealer is predicting that sturdy used automobile demand will proceed in 2024 and lead to a small market uplift. It forecasts transactions will improve to an estimated 7.24 million gross sales.
It stated that these indicators of sturdy client demand additional underline the necessity for retailers to observe the retail market. In accordance with Auto Dealer estimates, some 51,633 vehicles are at the moment being priced beneath their market worth by 8,100 retailers. With sturdy client demand out there, this repricing exercise is doubtlessly costing retailers £35.8 million in misplaced earnings – almost £4,500 per retailer.
December marked the fourth consecutive month of YoY decline for retail costs though as in earlier months there was appreciable nuance within the knowledge because the development of fleet destocking pushed down 1–3-year-old costs 10.1% yr on yr to £24,806. Used vehicles greater than 10 years outdated demonstrated optimistic worth development, with 10–15-year-old autos up 5.3% YoY to £6,532 and 15 yr+ autos rising 2.5% to £5,516. Vehicles aged 3-5 years outdated slid 6.1% to £19,639.
Amongst gasoline sorts, the typical value of a used EV was down 22.7% to £29,718 – persevering with the development of a lot bigger falls than petrol down 3.8% to £15,482 YoY and diesel which fell 2.2% to £15,371.
Commenting, Auto Dealer’s director of information and insights Richard Walker stated: “Our knowledge clearly reveals that the basics of the used automobile market stay stable; client demand is powerful, and vehicles are promoting rapidly, which mixed with the gradual return in provide, means retail costs proceed to indicate extra resilience than their commerce counterparts.
“Worryingly, it seems some pricing methods are being guided by wholesale developments, inserting pointless stress on retail values, and risking earnings within the course of. Slightly than only a trigger for concern, the retail and wholesale markets being out of sync additionally presents a revenue alternative for retailers who analyse the information on a car-by-car foundation and worth inventory relative to retail valuations. This yr greater than ever, it’s essential retailers undertake a forensic-like method to their pricing methods.”
Prime 10 used automobile worth development (all gasoline sorts) | December 2023 vs December 2022 like-for-likePrime 10 used automobile worth contraction (all gasoline sorts) | December 2023 vs December 2022 like-for-like